What Drives Interest Rates?

Have you been watching interest rates going up and down, and wondered why?  What drives interest rates?  Are they totally unpredictable, or can we get a sense for what direction interest rates are headed? As it turns out, they are not totally random.  You just have to think like an investor rather than a borrower. ...

Featured Story – How the 2016 US Election Affects Interest Rates?

The question on everyone’s mind is: “Depending on who wins the election, what happens to interest rates?” Well, to be fair, that questions isn’t on everyone’s mind. But someone asked it, so I have to write about it. Truthfully, I don’t even want to think about the election. But since you asked… Let me start...

Interest Rates Slide Down Gently to a New Low

Last week I wrote that interest rates were likely to move mostly in response to the stock market. The stock market idled most of the week, moving down unsteadily Wednesday and Friday. Money moved into Treasury bonds driving yields down gently (see red line in the chart immediately below) but mortgage-backed securities did not follow....

How Will Trump Impact Mortgage Rates?

Will Trump’s election move mortgage rates? On October 1 I wrote “ If (Investors) see..Trump…as destabilizing they are likely to drive long-term interest rates up.” Today the stock market initially tanked in overnight trading, and then soared up as investors digested the meaning of a Trump presidency, with some stock classes (like private prisons –...

Long Term Interest Rate Outlook – Opposing Views

Casey Fleming / October 5, 2016 I write about interest rates a lot, because folks seem to want to know. In my experience, it’s not hard to be right most of the time when projecting out, say, 24 hours or so. Beyond that things get quite murky. We still try, but really who knows? So...

Long Term Interest Rate View – Opposing Views

Where will interest rates be in 2017? (This graphic does not appear to correlate closely with the actual projections.) I write about interest rates a lot, because folks seem to want to know. In my experience, it’s not hard to be right most of the time when projecting out, say, 24 hours or so. Beyond...